Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990–2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990–2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020–2030. Results The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = −0.34) compared to men (EAPC = −0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.


Figure S3 .
Figure S3.Trends in incidence rate of global thyroid cancer burden from 1990 to 2030, by ages and genders.Panel A: Both; Panel B: Male; Panel C: Female.

Figure S4 .
Figure S4.Trends in death rate of global thyroid cancer burden from 1990 to 2030, by ages and genders.Panel A: Both; Panel B: Male; Panel C: Female.

Figure S5 .
Figure S5.Trends in DALY(disability adjusted life-year rate) of global thyroid cancer burden from 1990 to 2030, by ages and genders.Panel A: Both; Panel B: Male; Panel C: Female.

Figure S6 .
Figure S6.The EAPC of ASIR (age standardized incidence rate) in global thyroid cancer burden from 1990 to 2019, by countries.

Figure S10 .
Figure S10.The correlation of SDI and global Thyroid Cancer rate from 1990 to 2019, by regions.Panel A: ASIR (age-standardized incidence rate); Panel B : ASDR (age-standardized death rate); Panel C: DALY (disability-adjusted life-year).

Figure S11 .
Figure S11.The correlation of SDI and EAPC in global thyroid cancer burden from 1990 to 2030, by countries.Panel A: ASIR (age-standardized incidence rate); Panel B : ASDR (age-standardized death rate); Panel C: DALY (disability-adjusted life-year).